National Media Event: May 24, 2004

Jim Lushine
NWS Miami Warning Coordination Meteorologist

NOAA's National Weather Service issues weather forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property. In 2003 many Weather Forecast Offices began to issue a Surf Zone Forecast. One segment of this forecast is the Rip Current Outlook. National Weather Service meteorologists use sophisticated atmospheric and oceanic models to identify wind and wave conditions likely to result in dangerous rip current conditions.

Our Rip Current Outlooks follow a qualitative, three-tiered scale. A Low Risk means that, although rip currents are possible, the danger from them is generally low. A Moderate Risk indicates that wind and wave conditions support stronger or more frequent rip currents and that only experienced surf swimmers should enter the water. A High Risk means that rip currents are dangerous to all who enter the surf.

As the statistics from the last 10 years document, the number of rip current deaths nationwide ranks SECOND--after those from heat-related deaths--and AHEAD of the number of deaths for floods, tornadoes, lightning, and hurricanes! And in 2003, sadly, 34 people died in rip currents along Florida beaches, whereas a combined total of 13 persons lost their lives as a result of hurricanes, tornadoes, and lightning. For this year, as of May 13th, nine more people have died in rip currents at Florida beaches.

The Surf Zone Forecast with its Rip Current Outlook is communicated by many local National Weather Service offices to lifeguard agencies, Beach Patrols, Emergency Management officials, the media, and the public. Each Weather Forecast Office directly transmits the Surf Zone Forecast to the public through local internet web sites and NOAA Weather Radio. Our standardized forecast ensures that consistent rip current information is available to beachgoers along the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts.

The success of conveying public safety information through our Rip Current Outlook is a cooperative effort. The partnerships here in southeastern North Carolina are a fine example. The National Weather Service Wilmington Forecast Office has worked closely with North Carolina Sea Grant for education and outreach, and with local lifeguards, who are well-represented today by the men and women from the Wrightsville Beach Patrol.

The National Weather Service is confident the issuance of a daily and consistently-formatted Rip Current Outlook will help reduce the number of tragedies at our nation's surf beaches during the swimming season. We are committed to working closely with our nation's coastal scientists, surf lifeguards, and surf zone partners as we fulfill our Weather Service mission to save lives.